How Marvel began to struggle

Kevin Feige of Marvel Studios

A decade ago, the blog examined how Marvel (the corporate model of filmmaking) compared with Eon Productions (the family model).

In its early years, Marvel actually adapted Eon’s model. Early Marvel films kept costs in line. It was similar to how Eon co-founder Albert R. Broccoli would be willing to pay big for a Bond actor but supporting actors got relatively small pay. The likes of Bernard Lee, Lois Maxwell, and Desmond Llewelyn received modest wages.

As Marvel became a big success, budgets expanded. A cost of $200 million or more became common. But, hey, when $1 billion global box office figures were regular occurrences, that can happen. Marvel chief Kevin Feige became a big name in Hollywood.

Marvel’s box office climaxed with 2019’s Avengers: Endgame, with almost $2.8 billion in global box office.

Since then, Marvel hasn’t come close to those levels. But Marvel’s movie costs have stayed expensive. In addition, Marvel has made television series for the Disney + streaming series.

From the outside, it seems Marvel management, including Feige, is stretched thin. Earlier this month, one of Marvel’s top-ranking executives, Victoria Alonso, abruptly left the company.

Walt Disney Co. acquired 20th Century Fox a few years ago. That means that Marvel now has control of the X-Men and Fantastic Four, characters created in the 1960s by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby. But Marvel has yet to show what it can do with those characters. (An alterative universe version of the Fantastic Four’s Reed Richards was murdered in 2022’s Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness.)

It is possible the eyes of Marvel executives are bigger than their stomachs? Very possible. Marvel may be in need of a big mid-course correction.

Marvel, once invincible, becomes mortal

Poster for Avengers: Endgame (2019), the high point for Marvel Studios

Four years after Marvel Studios had a huge hit with Avengers: Endgame, the unit of Walt Disney Co. is having a tough time.

Marvel hasn’t come close to Endgame-level box office (almost $2.8 billion) with subsequent movies. The studio has reached deep into the Marvel catalog of characters for movies such as Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($432.2 million), The Eternals ($402.1 million), and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (currently at about $462 million).

Such movies haven’t generated Avengers-level box office while incurring Avengers-level costs. Marvel’s biggest recent success was Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021), with $1.9 billion at the box office. But Spider-Man movies are joint ventures between Marvel and Sony Pictures. The latter owns the rights to Spider-Man with Marvel producing the films.

Marvel also has been making television shows for the Disney + streaming service. So the attention of Marvel management is a bit stretched these days.

Today, The Hollywood Reporter said that a high-ranking Marvel executive, Victoria Alonso, has left Marvel. She had been with Marvel since 2006. With recent Marvel films, she’s had the title of executive producer. With movies, executive producer ranks below producer, the title Marvel chief Kevin Feige has in the credits for Marvel films.

Alonso also received attention when she once said that the name X-Men was “outdated” because the superhero group included women members. X-Men is one of Marvel’s most valuable pieces of “intellectual property.” The group of mutant superheroes has always had women members since its 1963 debut. Disney got control of the X-Men after it acquired 20th Century Fox, which held the rights to the comic book property.

It remains to be seen what happens next. There is a lot of talk about superhero fatigue at the cinema. Marvel rival Warner Bros. is revamping, again, its lineup of superhero films. Warner Bros. hired James Gunn, who worked on Marvel films in the past, to be co-chief of its DC Comics efforts.

At the very least, Marvel’s Feige probably shouldn’t expect that Thalberg award (for lifetime achievement by a producer) anytime soon

RE-POST: The hero’s last stand

No Time to Die poster

Adapted from a 2021 post

No Time to Die wrapped up a five-movie arc featuring Daniel Craig as James Bond. It was a self-contained Bond universe that (mostly) didn’t concern itself with the previous 20 Eon Productions movies.

Eon Productions got the idea in the middle of the arc (in between Skyfall and SPECTRE). Skyfall director Sam Mendes originally said that movie had nothing to do with the first two Craig 007 movies.

Still, it’s now official these films are their own thing. That’s much the way that Christopher Nolan’s three Batman movies are their own thing, not related to any other Batman films.

Whether Eon wants to admit it or not, the makers of the Bond film series are following the same path set by Fox and Marvel movies featuring Marvel comic book characters

With 2015’s SPECTRE, Eon specifically adapted interconnected storytelling featured in movies made by Walt Disney Co.’s Marvel Studios. With No Time to Die, Eon has doubled down on that concept.

2017’s Logan (made by Fox before it was absorbed by Disney), we had the final Hugh Jackman adventure as Logan/Wolverine. In 2019’s Avengers: Endgame, we had the concluding tale of Tony Stark/Iron man (Robert Downey Jr.), ending an arc of more than a decade.

The concept, of course, is The Hero’s Last Stand. The hero falls, but falls heroically. The audience weeps.

When executed well, it works.

To be clear, The Hero’s Last Stand goes back a long time. It was included in genres as diverse as Biblical epics (Samson and Deliah) and Westerns (Ride the High Country and The Shootist). But Biblical movies and Westerns aren’t popular anymore.

But comic book films are.

For example, Tony Stark makes the ultimate sacrifice to save those who matter the most to him. Sound familiar?

Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron about to make the ultimate sacrifice in Avengers: Endgame (2019)

You may respond that’s a coincidence. No, it’s not.

The tabloids ran stories in 2018 and 2019 speculating about whether Bond 25 would kill off Craig’s Bond. They also had stories asking whether Eon or Danny Boyle, No Time to Die’s original director wanted to kill Bond off.

The Sun said in August 2018 that Boyle quit because he did not want to kill off Bond. The Daily Star said in April 2019 that it was Boyle who wanted Bond “to die in the arms of returning Bond girl Lea Seydoux in the 25th spy movie Shatterhand.” (Oops.)

Regardless, we now know that somebody did. The notion of Bond dying has been in plain sight for years.

To be sure, movies can have similar themes and still be good. High Noon and Rio Bravo featured western lawmen who were outnumbered by the bad guys. But the two movies had considerably different takes on the same notion.

Many Bond fans despise Marvel films. Many fans are in denial that Bond has been adapting Marvel film concepts (including Eon boss Barbara Broccoli).

Of course, it also works the way around. Both Nolan’s Batman movies and Marvel’s film output have been influenced by Bond. Example: Look at casino scenes in 2012’s Skyfall and 2018’s Black Panther, for example.

Regardless, all still comes down to execution. So how does No Time to Die’s version of The Hero’s Last Stand compare?

When I finally saw it, I thought it was done very well. The ending had been spoiled for me. Not in a, “I stumbled it while surfing the internet” way but hearing it presented to me full on. Nevertheless, watching No Time to Die for the first time, it felt genuinely emotional.

You may disagree. And that’s fine. The thing is, Bond’s exit in No Time to Die was not brand-new territory.

MCU treads water (?) with new Thor film

Thor Love and Thunder poster

Through 2019, the Marvel Cinematic University seemed invincible. Avengers: Endgame was a huge hit, a big conclusion to 11 years of Marvel films.

Since then, Marvel hasn’t had that kind of hit (almost $2.8 billion at the box office). Former Marvel stars Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans took their final bows.

Marvel’s “Phase Four” has been more of a mixed bag. It hasn’t been helped by a pandemic that affected theater attendance.

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, released earlier this year, has generated global box office of more than $953 million. That’s serious money. But the movie started out strong and tailed off. Marvel also has to provide shows for parent company Walt Disney Co.’s Disney + streaming service.

Meanwhile, Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick has run up a global tally $1.13 billion.

This weekend, Marvel’s latest movie, Thor Love and Thunder, debuted. Its opening U.S. weekend was an estimated $143 million. That’s more than respectable but not at the levels Marvel is used to achieving. This year’s Dr. Strange movie had an opening of $187.4 million.

Also, Thor stars Chris Hemsworth. Both character and actor are holdovers from earlier Marvel films. Both Thor and Hemsworth were part of four successful Avengers movies in addition to three previous Thor films.

Is Marvel treading water these days? A lot of movies would love to get Thor-level money. In the U.S., No Time to Die, the most recent James Bond film, had an opening weekend of $55.2 million and an overall U.S. take of almost $161 million.

Still, while getting to the top is hard, staying there can be harder.

Dr. Strange 2 has a big opening weekend

Poster for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had an opening U.S. weekend of $185 million, according to Exhibitor Relations Co., which tracks box-office data.

The outcome reflects something of a comeback for Walt Disney Co.’s Marvel Studios. Marvel’s Avengers: Endgame, released in 2019, was a huge hit but also saw the death or retirement of important Marvel characters.

Since then, Marvel has released movies with lesser-known characters such as Shang-Chi and the Eternals. The one big exception was Spider-Man No Way Home, but that was a co-production with Sony, which holds the Spider-Man film rights. Marvel can’t do Spider-Man movies without Sony.

The new Dr. Strange movie stars Benedict Cumberbatch as the sorcerer. Cumberbatch was in the first Dr. Strange film in 2016 as well as Avengers movies in 2018 and 2019 and Spider-Man No Way Home.

Can Dr. Strange restore Marvel’s momentum?

Poster for Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Until 2019, Walt Disney Co.’s Marvel Studios was a juggernaut. The Marvel brand seemingly could do no wrong beginning with 2008’s Iron Man and running through 2019’s Avengers: Endgame.

Since then? Marvel has had more than a few bumps in the road.

Some of that can be attributed to a pandemic. Marvel had to delay some movie releases.

At the same time, Marvel saw some of its best-known characters fall by the wayside. Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron was killed off in Avengers: Endgame. Chris Evans’ Captain America retired in the same movie.

Since then, Marvel has, mostly, relied on lesser-known characters in its catalog. Shang Chi. The Eternals. The one major hit was Spider-Man No Way Home, which Marvel made for Sony (which holds the film rights to the character). That 2021 film was a huge success, generating almost $1.9 billion at the global box office.

On May 6, Marvel gets another shot with Dr. Strange in the Multiverse of Madness.

Dr. Strange is an unlikely choice to hang the future of a big franchise. The character was created by artist Steve Ditko in the early 1960s. Even in those days, the sorcerer was never the most popular Marvel character.

Still, Dr. Strange was a significant character in Spider-Man No Way Home as well as two Avengers films plus his own 2016 movie.

The leaders of Marvel Studios may or may not have chosen Dr. Strange to spearhead a comeback for the studio. But it has worked out that way.

As ever, we’ll see how it plays out.

Spider-Man No Way Home gets off to hot start

Spider-Man No Way Home poster

Spider-Man No Way Home, the third movie starring Tom Holland as the web-slinger, this week got off to a blistering start in both the U.K. and U.S.

The film had an opening day box office of 7.6 million pounds ($10.1 million) in the U.K., The Hollywood Reporter said, citing the U.K. Cinema Association. That beat out No Time to Die on its opening day and was “the biggest opening day of all time for a Wednesday,” according to THR.

On Thursday, the movie generated $50 million in preview showings, according to Exhibitor Relations Co., which tracks box office data.

That was No. 3 all-time for U.S. preview showings, although an asterisk was involved — the preview showings began earlier than normal for Spider-Man No Way Home.

TOP PREVIEW DOMESTIC DEBUTS

1. AVENGERS: ENDGAME ($60M)
2. STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS ($57M)
3. SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME ($50M)

It should be noted that previews for NO WAY HOME began at 3pm yesterday, instead of 6pm/7pm as is the status quo.

— Elf Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) December 17, 2021

Still, the results are welcome news for both Sony, which has the rights to the character, and Marvel Studios, which since 2017 had made Spider-Man films with Sony.

Spider-Man No Way Home adopts a “multi-verse” approach featuring villains (and the actors who played them) from Sony-made Spider-Man films of the past. Also present is Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch), the Marvel sorcerer who appeared in one solo Marvel movie and two Marvel Avengers films.

Dr. Strange was created by artist Steve Ditko and his earliest stories were by Ditko and Stan Lee. The Lee-Ditko team also created Spider-Man.

Since Avengers: Endgame in 2019, Marvel has come out with movies featuring lesser-known characters, Shang Chi and the Eternals. Spider-Man is the most popular Marvel character but one Marvel Studios has to share with Sony.

The release of Spider-Man No Way Home also comes amid a surge in COVID-19 cases, including a new COVID variant. COVID had forced the delay of various movies, including No Time to Die.

NTTD to be 2021’s box office champ, Puck says

No Time to Die poster

No Time to Die will end up 2021’s box office champion ” with a big asterisk” among major studio films, the digital Puck news service said in an analysis.

“No Time to Die is now projected to cross F9’s $721.1 million global number sometime around Thanksgiving, according to both MGM, its domestic distributor, and Universal, which handled most overseas territories,” wrote Puck’s Matthew Belloni, a former editor of The Hollywood Reporter and a one-time entertainment lawyer.

“With neither Eternals nor Venom: There Will Be Carnage getting a China release, and nothing major coming before year’s end (except Spider-man: No Way Home, which drops Dec. 17 and will earn mostly in 2022), it’s safe to say the Bond film played a long game and came out on top.”

The asterisk cited by Belloni is how the COVID-19 pandemic shrunk the movie-going audience in 2021. In 2019, Avengers: Endgame generated almost $2.8 billion at the global box office. That is “between three and four times the likely Bond number,” Belloni wrote.

The No Time to Die global box office, he added, is “still notable, given the geezer-skewing audience for the franchise. Studio research showed that 25 percent of the over-35 audience said this was their first movie back in theaters, I’m told.”

No Time to Die debuted in the U.K. in late September and in the U.S. in early October. Australia saw the film released on Nov. 11.

The Box Office Mojo website listed the Bond movie’s global box office at $709.2 million as of Thursday morning.

Two films released in Asia, The Battle at Lake Changjin and Hi, Mom, each have box office totals above $800 million.

About that No. 1 spoiler for No Time to Die

No Time to Die poster

YES, there be spoilers. So if you’re spoiler sensitive, stop reading now. This is your last warning. To make what seems like an obvious point to me, spoilers are necessary for this post. I gave this post the most bland title to avoiding giving things away.

No Time to Die wraps up a five-movie arc featuring Daniel Craig as James Bond. It’s a self-contained Bond universe that (mostly) doesn’t concern the previous 20 Eon Productions movies.

Eon Productions got the idea in the middle of the arc (in between Skyfall and SPECTRE). Still, it’s now official these films are their own thing. That’s much the way that Christopher Nolan’s three Batman movies are their own thing, not related to any other Batman films.

Whether Eon wants to admit it or not, the makers of the Bond film series are following the same path set by Fox and Marvel movies featuring Marvel comic book characters

With 2015’s SPECTRE, Eon specifically adapted interconnected storytelling featured in movies made by Walt Disney Co.’s Marvel Studios. With No Time to Die, Eon has doubled down on that concept.

2017’s Logan (made by Fox before it was absorbed by Disney), we had the final Hugh Jackman adventure as Logan/Wolverine. In 2019’s Avengers: Endgame, we had the concluding tale of Tony Stark/Iron man (Robert Downey Jr.), ending an arc of more than a decade.

The concept, of course, is The Hero’s Last Stand. The hero falls, but falls heroically. The audience weeps.

When executed well, it works.

To be clear, The Hero’s Last Stand goes back a long time. It was included in genres as diverse as Biblical epics (Samson and Deliah) and Westerns (Ride the High Country and The Shootist). But Bibical movies and Westerns aren’t popular anymore.

But comic book films are.

For example, Tony Stark makes the ultimate sacrifice to save those who matter the most to him. Sound familiar?

Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark/Iron about to make the ultimate sacrifice in Avengers: Endgame (2019)

You may respond that’s a coincidence. No, it’s not.

The tabloids ran stories in 2018 and 2019 speculating about whether Bond 25 would kill off Craig’s Bond. They also had stories asking whether Eon or Danny Boyle, No Time to Die’s original director wanted to kill Bond off.

The Sun said in August 2018 that Boyle quit because he did not want to kill off Bond. The Daily Star said in April 2019 that it was Boyle who wanted Bond “to die in the arms of returning Bond girl Lea Seydoux in the 25th spy movie Shatterhand.” (Oops.)

Regardless, we now know that somebody did. The notion of Bond dying has been in plain sight for more than three years.

To be sure, movies can have similar themes and still be good. High Noon and Rio Bravo featured western lawmen who were outnumbered by the bad guys. But the two movies had considerably different takes on the same notion.

Many Bond fans despise Marvel films. Many fans are in denial that Bond has been adapting Marvel film concepts (including Eon boss Barbara Broccoli).

Of course, it also works the way around. Both Nolan’s Batman movies and Marvel’s film output have been influenced by Bond. Example: Look at casino scenes in 2012’s Skyfall and 2018’s Black Panther, for example.

Regardless, all still comes down to execution. So how does No Time to Die’s version of The Hero’s Last Stand compare?

When I finally saw it, I’d have to say very well. The ending had been spoiled for me. Not in a, “I stumbled it while surfing the internet” way but hearing it presented to me full on. Nevertheless, watching it for the first time, it felt genuinely emotional.

You may disagree. And that’s fine. The thing is, Bond’s exit in No Time to Die is not brand-new territory.

About those billion-dollar movies

Poster for Skyfall, the first $1 billion Bond

Over the past decade, claiming the title of being a “billion-dollar” movie has become a thing.

The Box Office Mojo website, currently lists 48 movies with a global box office of $1 billion or more. The list isn’t adjusted for inflation. But the $1 billion mark has become a sign of box office success.

The list includes 2012’s Skyfall at No. 28 ($1.11 billion), the first billion-dollar Bond film. Regardless what was once rare (The Dark Knight in 2008, Avatar in 2009) has become almost common place.

Until COVID-19, that is. But more on that in a moment.

The New Standard

The thing about achieving billion dollar status is that suddenly becomes the floor. If you fail to match it, that almost becomes failure.

Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) got a lot of attention. It scored an opening weekend in the U.S. of more than $200 million and $1.5 billion globally. Marvel films, after four years of build up, had arrived.

Yet, when 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron came out with a $1.4 billion box office, it was almost seen as a disappointment. Marvel followed up with a two-part Avengers adventure (Avengers: Infinity War and Avengers: Endgame) which generated more than $2 billion for each installment.

Keeping this to the cinema world of James Bond, 2015’s SPECTRE generated $880.6 million. By any reasonable standard, that would be seen as popular. But it’s not a billion dollars!

At the same time, this isn’t just hype. So-called “tentpole” movies are getting so expensive a billion-dollar box office is almost a necessity. No Time to Die, the 25th Bond film, had generated production costs of almost $290 million as of mid-2020, according to a U.K. regulatory filing. Making a “tentpole” movie is not cheap.

Life Changes

All of that was before COVID-19 hit in the first months of 2020.

With the pandemic, movie theater attendance plunged. Theaters were closed or had severe limitation on attendance. Some movies got released on streaming.

The industry is changing. Theaters had enjoyed a 90-day window to show films before home video kicked in. After COVID, that window is tightening even when films come out “exclusively in theaters” (now an advertising tagline)

Industrywide, the financials are shifting. There’s a legitimate question whether an expensive No Time to Time can even make a profit on its theatrical release.

This post isn’t a matter of being doom and gloom. It’s more a description of an industry in change.

Want to hear doom and gloom? Veteran entertainment executive Barry Diller told The Hollywood Reporter this month that he expects only 10 percent of movie theaters to survive.

Again, keeping this to Bond, No Time to Die was made while one world existed. It will debut after a new world has taken hold.