Some COVID-19 related movie news

There are some new tea leaves to read regarding motion pictures and COVID-19. Nothing definite, certainly not in connection with No Time to Die. But a few items to keep in mind.

Falling moviegoer confidence: The Hollywood Reporter said a late July poll indicates that confidence among moviegoers has lessened as the new delta variant of COVID-19 spreads.

An exerpt:

The results of a late July poll on moviegoing confidence levels were alarming. The National Research Group survey, closely watched by studios, showed that the overall comfort level had tumbled from a pandemic-era high of 81 percent to 72 percent in the span of just three weeks amid the delta variant. Moms appeared to be the most concerned about taking a trip to the multiplex, with their comfort index tumbling from 75 percent to 59 percent.

The story, by Pamela McClintock, references how the family film Clifford the Big Red Dog has been delayed from a planned September release. It raises questions whether other movies may also get delayed.

A notable comic book movie starts slow: Warner Bros.’s Suicide Squad debuts this weekend. It is available both in theaters and on HBO Max. It’s directed by James Gunn, who helmed two Guardians of the Galaxy films for Marvel. It’s essentially a do-over for the group of villains forced to work for the U.S. government. It also follows Birds of Prey, another Warners-DC comics film.

Exhibitor Relations Co., which tracks box office data, said on Twitter that film’s Thursday night preview shows were nothing special.

WB's THE SUICIDE SQUAD barricaded the box office with $4.1M in previews last night–that's nearly identical to BIRDS OF PREY, which went on to debut with a disappointing $33M.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) August 6, 2021

Of course, it’s still early.

UPDATE (Aug. 8): Things didn’t go so well.

WB's $185M THE SUICIDE SQAUD debuted with $26.5M this weekend, or, in other words, just $3M more than MORTAL KOMBAT earlier this year.

I know, I know…blah, blah, blah, pandemic…blah, blah, blah, rating.

Make no mistake. Heads will roll. Big changes coming for DC.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) August 8, 2021

There’s another MGM movie about to come out: That would be Respect, a film about the life of singer Aretha Franklin (1942-2018).

At one point, MGM viewed Respect as a way to get Oscar nominations. But then COVID-19 caused the studio to delay from late 2020 to the Aug. 13 weekend.

Like other MGM films (including No Time to Die), it is distributed in North America by United Artists Releasing, MGM’s joint venture with Annapurna Pictures. Respect is being shown “only in theaters,” just like No Time to Die.

h/t to David Zaritsky, via Morten Steingrimsen, who flagged The Hollywood Reporter story to my attention.

SPECTRE U.S.-Canada final opening weekend: $70.4 million

SPECTRE’s final figure for its opening weekend in the U.S. and Canada was reduced to $70.4 million, Exhibitors Relations, which tracks movie box office, said today on Twitter.

That’s down from the initial $73 million estimate given out at midday Sunday. The 24th James Bond film still had the No. 2 007 opening in the region, behind 2012’s Skyfall at $88.4 million and ahead of 2008’s Quantum of Solace at $67.5 million.

In 2012, Skyfall had U.S.-Canada box office $304.4 million out of the movie’s global box office of $1.11 billion.

Here’s the Exhibitors Relation tweet:

SPECTRE is the #1 flick in North America: $70,403,148–2nd best James Bond opening of all-time.

— Exhibitor Relations (@ERCboxoffice) November 9, 2015

U.N.C.L.E.: 2d U.S. weekend is good news, bad news

Logo for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. movie

UPDATE (Aug. 26): The final second weekend figure for U.N.C.L.E. was $7.3 million, a 45.5 percent decline from the debut weekend, according to BOX OFFICE MOJO.

ORIGINAL POST (Aug. 23): For The Man From U.N.C.L.E. movie, its second U.S. weekend had good news and bad news.

Relatively speaking, it was better than average in one key respect.

The Guy Ritchie-directed film will decline this weekend by an estimated 45 percent to $7.4 million, Exhibitor Relations SAID ON TWITTER. It called the results “respectible.”

A falloff of at least 50 percent between the first and second weekend is expected. A decline less than that is considered above average.

The U.N.C.L.E. movie’s cumulative U.S. box office is an estimated $26 million, Exhibitor Relations said.

The final weekend figures come out on Monday.

For perspective, the No. 1 movie at the box office, for the second weekend in a row, was Straight Outta Compton. It had estimated ticket sales of $26.7 million, a 56 percent decline from last weekend, Exhibitors Relations SAID IN A SEPARATE TWEET.

Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation, meanwhile, IS COMING IN AT NO. 2 at about $11 million. The fifth M:I film with Tom Cruise was released July 31, two weeks before U.N.C.L.E.

The U.N.C.L.E. film is in the midst of its international rollout. Variety reported in 2013 its production budget was $75 million.

UPDATED: Skyfall U.S. box office prediction chart

UPDATE III (Nov. 10): BLOOMBERG.COM quoted Hollywood.com Box Office as estimating Skyfall’s opening U.S. and Canada could total as much as $80 million in ticket sales.

An excerpt:

The film earned $30.8 million yesterday, including $2.4 million in midnight showings, the box-office tracker said today in an e-mailed statement. Sales outside the U.S. and Canada for “Skyfall” are $347 million as of Nov. 8, Hollywood.com said.

UPDATE II: The DEADLINE ENTERTAINMENT NEWS WEB SITE quotes “rival studios” to Sony Pictures as saying Skyfall may have sold $37 million in tickets Thursday and Friday combined and could have an $88 million opening weekend.

UPDATE: The HOLLYWOOD REPORTER says Skyfall had ticket sales of $2.2 million at Imax theaters on Thursday and $2.4 million at 12:01 a.m. showings on Friday.

ORIGINAL POST: For those interested in the business side of the movies, here’s our updated chart of Skyfall U.S. box office predictions. The movie opened at Imax theaters in the U.S. yesterday and is in wide release starting today.

“I must get to the theater NOW!”

Los Angeles Times: at least $75 million opening weekend.

BOXOFFICE.COM: $230 million total U.S.; $85 million opening weekend

Exhibitors Relations, cited in THE WRAP entertainment news Web site: $230 million total U.S., more than $70 million opening weekend.

The Wrap (citing analysts and “rival” studio executives: $75 million to $85 million weekend.

DEADLINE ENTERTAINMENT NEW WEB SITE: $215 million total U.S., described as a “guesstimate.”

BOX OFFICE MOJO: $185 million total U.S. In a STORY TODAY, the Web state is projecting an opening weekend of $78.2 million, including Thursday showings at Imax theaters.

The Nov. 9 Box Office Mojo story also says:

One thing working against Skyfall’s opening weekend figure, though, is its Thursday IMAX debut. Sony isn’t currently releasing theater count information, though the assumption is that it’s playing in at least 300 of IMAX’s over 330 domestic locations. Based on IMAX’s track record, Skyfall could earn as much as $2 million on Thursday, which is money it would have earned over the traditional three-day weekend.

Preliminary box office figures come out Sunday, Nov. 11. They will consist of actual ticket sales on Friday and Saturday with an estimate for Sunday. Final figures come out the following day.

Skyfall’s U.S. box office: how high is up?

UPDATE (Nov. 8): The Los Angeles Times in a story you read BY CLICKING HERE people who’ve seen pre-release audience surveys as estimating Skyfall’s opening weekend in the U.S. will generate at least $75 million in ticket sales. A Sony spokesman (who isn’t identified) says the studio’s estimate is $65 million to $70 million.

ORIGINAL NOV. 5 POST: Skyfall is almost halfway to being the top-grossing James Bond movie unadjusted for inflation. The question now is how high can the movie go in the U.S. market, where it opens this week.

Daniel Craig in a Skyfall publicity sill

The 23rd James Bond movie recorded $287 million in international ticket sales through Oct. 4 and $289 million in updated figures as of Oct. 5 on Box Office Mojo. It’s projected that Skyfall will also hit a U.S. record, again unadjusted for inflation. The highest U.S. sales for the 007 series was Quantum of Solace’s $168.4 million mark, which included a $67.5 million opening weekend. Casino Royale is 2006 is the top-grossing film in the series at $596.4 million.

Here’s a list of four estimates we’ve come across for Skyfall:

BOXOFFICE.COM: $230 million total U.S.; $85 million opening weekend

Exhibitors Relations, cited in THE WRAP entertainment news Web site: $230 million total U.S., more than $70 million opening weekend.

DEADLINE ENTERTAINMENT NEW WEB SITE: $215 million total U.S., described as a “guesstimate.”

BOX OFFICE MOJO: $185 million total U.S.

Skyfall is the only major movie debuting in wide release this weekend in the U.S. (A Steven Spielberg-directed biography of Abraham Lincoln will be in limited release before its general release on Nov. 16.) Also, on Nov. 16, another movie opens that could take a lot of the U.S. box office oxygen, as described by The Wrap:

(Skyfall’s) first week in the U.S. will be crucial, as the following weekend will see the debut of “The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2.” Summit’s finale of the “Twilight” series has topped the pre-sales charts since tickets became available online more than a month ago, and it is projected to open in the $150 million range.

While the foreign bows weren’t intentionally set up to boost the U.S. release, Sony knew they could help. “The idea was to build worldwide momentum out of the U.K. and Western Europe,” Sony spokesman Steve Elzer told TheWrap. “We employed a similar pattern on ‘Quantum of Solace.’”

In 2008, Quantum of Solace’s ticket sales fell 60 percent because of the debut of the first Twilight movie. Sony refers to the Sony Pictures unit of Sony Corp., which is releasing Skyfall and co-financed it with Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer.

Meanwhile, many Bond fans would like to see Skyfall crash beyond the $600 million worldwide ticket sale mark and reach $1 billion. That would put the movie in the conversation as all-time 007 champ even adjusted for inflation (Thunderball is the No. 1 film on an inflation-adjusted basis). It would also put it in the same box-office class as movies such as The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises.