Bond series now No. 004 in unadjusted film series box office

Facebook image Marvel put on Facebook in May.

The Bond Bulletin in a post today noted that the James Bond film series had fallen behind Star Wars in all-time box office. Depending on how you define “franchises,” 007 is now 004 in unadjusted box office.

In a list of franchises on The Numbers box office website, the Marvel Cinematic Universe as of Dec. 30 has $10.9 billion worldwide box office, Harry Potter $8.47 billion, Star Wars $7.2 billion and James Bond $7.08 billion.

Again, this is unadjusted box office. It’s not number of tickets sold. And it doesn’t account for rising ticket prices.

Here’s how each franchise is defined in the list compiled by The Numbers website:

James Bond: The 24 007 films produced by Eon Productions since 1962 plus 1983’s Never Say Never Again (not made by Eon but with original film 007 Sean Connery). It does not include 1967’s Casino Royale spoof film.

Star Wars: Nine movies comprised of original trilogy (1977-1983), second trilogy (1999-2005), Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens (2015), the animated movie Star Wars: The Clone Wars (2008), and this year’s Rogue One, a Star Wars story.

Harry Potter: Eight Harry Potter series films released 2001 to 2011, a Potter marathon at Imax theaters this year and 2016’s Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, a spinoff.

Marvel: Fourteen films, beginning with 2008’s Iron Man and running through this year’s Dr. Strange, produced by Marvel Studios. All of the movies occur in the same fictional universe. It does not count X-Men and Fantastic Four films produced by 20th Century Fox and Spider-Man movies produced by Sony Pictures.

Fox and Sony licensed those characters before Marvel decided to make its own movies. The separate X-Men category on The Numbers website includes solo films featuring Wolverine an Deadpool.

Both Star Wars and Marvel fell under the wing of Walt Disney Co. through acquisitions. They’re released under Lucasfilm Ltd. and Marvel brand names.

Under Disney ownership, both Lucasfilm and Marvel are ramping up production.

Episode VIII of Star Wars comes out next year, with other Star Wars-related films, such as Rogue One, planned. Marvel has been making two movies a year and will make three in 2017, including Spider-Man: Homecoming, which Marvel is producing but Sony will release. This year, Spider-Man joined the Marvel cinema universe in Captain America: Civil War.

Warner Bros. plans as many as five Fantastic Beasts films.

The Bond series doesn’t have an “extended universe,” a concept made popular by Marvel. It features one character, James Bond.

2012’s Skyfall, showed the series is capable of billion-dollar box office. It terms of number of tickets sold, Skyfall was No. 3 in series history in the U.S. market at 37.8 million, behind Thunderball and Goldfinger.

The most recent entry, SPECTRE, had worldwide box office of $880.7 million, No. 6 globally in 2015.

In the U.S. market, SPECTRE sold 23 million tickets, No. 14 in series history. On that basis, it was also the lowest since the series resumed in 1995 following a six-year hiatus.

Skyfall’s legacy

Skyfall’s poster image

As Skyfall’s run in theaters ends (outside of China, anyway), there have been various efforts to analyze its place in 007 history, including whether or not it should be considered the top Bond performer even adjusted for inflation.

Here’s a simpler evaluation, without math or complicated comparison of box office from different eras over a half century: Skyfall, whether you liked it (and many did) or not, re-established or confirmed (depending on your view) Agent 007 as a major player in pop culture.

Not that long ago, Harry Potter films had passed 007 for worldwide ticket sales. Many 007 fans cried foul, saying such comparisons were unfair. Today, after Skyfall has reached No. 8 all time in adjusted ticket sales? You don’t hear that so much.

In 2008, Quantum of Solace got off to a strong opening weekend in the U.S. but faltered the next weekend when Twilight,the first of series of movies about young vampires, arrived in theaters. Four years later, Skyfall and 007 got even, recording higher ticket sales, even in the U.S., Twilight’s home ground for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, the final bow of the young vampires.

All of this occurred despite a bankruptcy at Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the studio that controls half of the 007 franchise. It happened despite a four-year hiatus for 007.

Is 007 as big as 1965, when Thunderball set a James Bond box office record for (unadjusted for inflation) worldwide ticket sales that would stand until 1973’s Live And Let Die? Well, 1965 was a big year for Bond: it started out with Goldfinger still playing in theaters, was followed by a Dr. No-From Russia With Love getting re-released as a double feature and concluded with Thunderball. Thanks to home video, that kind of almost-constant run in theaters can’t happen today.

On the other hand, remember Thunderball wasn’t even the most popular movie in the year it was released. The Sound of Music had higher U.S.-Canada ticket sales than Thunderball did worldwide. Thunderball was a huge hit, to be sure, but some fans may remember it as being even larger than it was.

Skyfall, which debuted in Chinese theaters last week, is right behind The Dark Knight Rises for No. 7 all-time (unadjusted) and No. 2 movie worldwide for 2012 releases.

Eon Productions, MGM and Sony Pictures (which has released the last three 007 films) face a tough comparison when Bond 24 goes into production. But that’s a discussion for another day. As of early 2013, Harry Potter, Twilight and Batman (at least until the next reboot) have fallen away; agent 007 is still plugging away. That’s Skyfall’s real legacy.

Some recent 007 U.S. box office statistics

We recently did some preliminary handicapping of Skyfall’s U.S. box office prospects and said the 23rd James Bond film may only spend one weekend as the No. 1 movie in the U.S. Some posters on James Bond message boards objected (for an example CLICK HERE), so we decided to check out some recent history.

We went back and looked at the last four 007 films and how they fared in the U.S. To be clear, we were only concerned with the number of weeks they were No. 1. Here’s what we found:

The World Is Not Enough (1999)

Number of weekends at No. 1: 1

Beat out: Sleepy Hollow

Yielded to: Toy Story 2

Die Another Day (2002)

Number of weekends at No. 1: 3

Beat out: Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (first two weekends), Analyze That (third weekend).

Yielded to: Maid In Manhattan

Miscellaneous: The second Harry Potter film opened one week before the 20th James Bond film that also celebrated the 20th 40th anniversary of the cinema version of 007. It was close, but Die Another Day won the No. 1 movie crown the next two weekends and one more time versus Analyze That.

Casino Royale (2006)

Number of weekends at No. 1: 0

Miscellaneous: The 21st James Bond film opened against the animated Happy Feet. Daniel Craig’s 007 debut finished No. 2 three consecutive weekends to Happy Feet.

Quantum of Solace (2008)

Number of Weekends at No. 1: 1.

Beat out: Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa

Yielded to: Twilight

Just to be clear, we’re not saying any of these Bond films was a financial flop. Casino Royale, despite not having a single weekend as the No. 1 movie in the U.S., has the top worldwide gross and No. 2 U.S. box office on an unajusted basis among the Bond films.

Still, the landscape for this year’s Skyfall looks very similar to Quantum of Solace: an excellent shot at No. 1 its opening weekend but a struggle against the Twilight franchise in week No. 2 because of the *current* popularity of the series about young vampires. Some message board posters note the fan bases are quite different. That’s true. And, *at this moment in time*, there are more Twilight fans buying tickets at movie theaters than there are Bond fans.

What makes the Bond series unique is its longevity, despite the various pauses and production interruptions. If you average out the last four movies, one week at No. 1 (in the U.S., anyway) is just about average. There’s no shame in that, not at all. The point of our previous post was to look at the world as it is, not as we’d like it to be.

007 questions about Bond vs. a young wizard

001. Can the James Bond ever be the No. 1 film series again? Harry Potter passed 007 some time back as the top-grossing film series worldwide. The gap currently is about $7.3 billion for the young wizard compared with $5.1 billion for the gentleman agent.

Ah, a 007 enthusiast may reply, Harry’s film career has ended with Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II. Agent 007 will make up the difference in no time.

002. Just what is “no time”? We’re talking years, at the very least the better part of a decade.

003. How can that be? Get out your calculator: There’s a $2.2 billion gap between 007 and Harry. The Bond series would have to average $500 million in box office receipts for four consecutive movies, starting with Bonbd 23, to catch the Potter series — and that’s if everybody stopped buying tickets to Deathly Hallows Part II this minute, all over the world.

004. But that’s possible, isn’t it? Certainly, but a $500 million gross isn’t common for a 007 movie. The Bond series never had a $500 million worldwide gross until 2006’s Casino Royale, still the series’ top-grossing entry at $596.4 million. Quantum of Solace grossed almost as much, $576.4 million.

005. Sounds doable, isn’t it? Sure, especially when you factor in rising ticket prices. Still, even if it happens, the *earliest* it could occur is 2018, assuming the Bond series can come out with an entry every other year beginning with Bond 23 in 2012.

006. What might prevent that? Remember, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the studio that owns a half-interest in the 007 franchise, was in bankruptcy less than a year ago. Even before MGM’s bankruptcy, Bond producer Michael G. Wilson was again talking about how exhausted he was following Quantum and that there’d be at least a three-year break between films. It remains to be seen if Wilson and Eon Productions is up to producing a 007 movie every other year.

007. So what are you trying to say? Enjoy Bond 23, both when it starts filming later this year and in 2012 when it comes out. Don’t get hung up on being No. 2 worldwide (or No. 3 in the U.S. behind Potter and the Star Wars series). Also, don’t take 007 for granted. Bond films have been in hiatus more years than not since 1989 (1989-95, 2002-2006, 2008-present).

Thunderball’s 45th anniversary part I: Bondmania peaks

December is the 45th anniversary of the fourth James Bond film, Thunderball. In some ways, it’s a bittersweet anniversary for 007 fans. Bondmania hit its peak with Thunderball for the general public and it would never make it back to those levels.

Obviously the series has remained popular, generating 18 installments over the next 43 years. But it wouldn’t be the entertainment phenomenon it was in 1964 and 1965.

Thunderball grossed about $63.6 million in the U.S. Adjusted for inflaton, assuming an averge ticket price of $7.95, that translates to almost $595 million in 2010 dollars, according to information compiled by Box Office Mojo Website. On the adjusted gross basis, Thunderball is No. 27 all time and outranks Spider-Man, some (but not all) of the Star Wars series, Forrest Gump and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King among others.

Again, the Box Office Mojo list is U.S.only. Thunderball had a worldwide gross of $141.2 million, according to a list of unadjusted grosses compiled by Numbers.com Assuming a similar adjustment for 2010 (as in the Box Office Mojo U.S. list), you’re looking at an adjusted gross of more than $1 billion for Thunderball.

However, on the adjusted U.S. list, the only other 007 film is 1964’s Goldfinger at No. 41 ($51 million actual U.S. gross, $527 million adjusted for 2010 dollars). In the bottom 10 of the adjusted list, you’ll see the likes of Seargeant York, House of Wax and Toy Story 2. You won’t find Quantum of Solace, the most recent 007 film that had the highest actual U.S. gross in the Bond series of $169.4 million.

Bond, of course, is popular outside of the U.S. Still, if you assume Thunderball has an adjusted gross of $1 billion or better worldwide, then the top unadjusted worldwide grossing Bond film — 2006’s Casino Royale at $596.4 million — isn’t nearly as popuar as the 1965 film was.

Earlier this year, on message boards of Bond fan Web sites, fans argued that adjusted grosses were the true measure of Bond’s popularity. This came in response to stories LIKE THIS ONE that the Harry Potter series had passed 007 in total unadjusted grosses.

But if adjusted is the real standard, then Bond’s *biggest* days are behind him. That doesn’t mean that 007 isn’t popular. And yes, comparing financial performance of movies from different eras is actually more complicated because there are more revenue sources now than in previous decades. Still, it doesn’t change the fact the Thunderball anniversary is also the anniversary of an end of an era, an era that seems unlikely to return.

007’s double-edged sword: box office receipts vs. tickets sold

The news that Harry Potter has passed James Bond for the most successful movies series, can stir reactions from Bond fans (including HMSS’s own staff) that such a comparison is unfair. The notion is that if you go by number of tickets sold, that’s a much fairer comparison that using unadjusted box-office gross.

If you look at the unadjusted figures, the highest grossing 007 film is 2006’s Casino Royale with more than $596 million worldwide. In terms of U.S. gross, the No. 1 Bond film is 2008’s Quantum of Solace, according to by http://www.by-thenumbers.com, with more than $169 million out of a worldwide gross of $576 million.

However, there are lists that based what grosses would be if you adjusted for inflation of ticket prices. According to a list compiled at the Box Office Mojo Web site, Thunderball’s $63.6 million U.S. gross alone would be equal to almost $595 million. There have been other estimates that Thunderball’s worldwide gross would equal about $1 billion today.

Others say not so fast. The Hot Blog, in a January posting argued the “ticket sold” argument isn’t the strongest, that studios don’t care about the number of tickets sold, just about revenue, that they’re trying to find new ways (and with 3D a revamped old one) of generating more revenue and that it’s hard to compare movies of different eras. A sampling:

But the adjusted grossers would have you believe that properly read, Thunderball would have grossed more than The Dark Knight last year and would be fighting Avatar for the #2 slot al-time worldwide now at more than $1.2 billion, as Bond always plays great in the international market.

Bond is a very valuable franchise. But the best it has ever grossed with one film is still under $600 million worldwide. I’m not saying that $64 million for Thunderball in 1965 wasn’t extraordinary. But was it of significance like a billion dollar-plus movie is now?

Here’s something else that the Hot Blog post doesn’t mention. If you embrace the tickets sold/adjusted for inflation argument, it’s doubtful any new Bond movie would ever surpass Thunderball,. Or put another way, the series’ best financial days are behind it. Based on Box Office Mojo’s estimates, Thunderball‘s grosses were more than 15 times its $9 million production cost. Quantum of Solace, the most recent 007 film? About two-and-a-half times, thanks in part to an estimated production budget of $230 million.

No matter which side one takes, it’s a double-edged sword for 007, and a debate whose answers are murky.

Harry Potter takes No. 1 series title from 007

Over at the Yahoo! Movies site, there’s the news that the boy wizard has beaten out the gentlemen agent with a license to kill for top-grossing movie series title.

The most successful movie franchise of all time is the “Harry Potter” series, which recently edged out another famous Brit: James Bond.

According to Box Office Mojo, the first six adaptations of J.K. Rowling’s beloved books have earned a staggering $5.4 billion worldwide, not adjusted for inflation.

The 22 films considered part of the official Bond canon (the 1967 spoof “Casino Royale” and the 1983 out-of-continuity “Never Say Never Again” don’t count) have earned an estimated $5 billion globally. But even if the earnings of those two films were included, it still wouldn’t be enough to put 007 on top.

You can read the entire story BY CLICKING HERE. These figures don’t adjust for inflation. But the article also points out there are still Potter films in the pipeline while the 007 series is on hiatus because of the financial uncertainty at Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc.