Before you get too excited about bookies and 007…

Colin Salmon: at one point in 2005 he was a 13-4 favorite

For the past few months, many stories have been generated by the changing odds from bookies about who the next James Bond will be.

The problem: Their track record wasn’t so great last time, after Pierce Brosnan’s license to thrill wasn’t renewed by Eon Productions co-bosses Barbara Broccoli and Michael G. Wilson.

The BBC, on Jan. 18, 2005, posted a story saying that U.K. bookmakers Ladbrokes and William Hill had installed Hugh Jackman as a 2-1 favorite.

Other contenders at that time, according to the BBC: Ewan McGregor (7-2 at William Hill), Colin Ferrell (7-2 at Ladbrokes), Clive Owen (4-1 at William Hill) and Chris Feeney (4-1 at Ladbrokes).

Two months later, The Atlantic’s website delved into the subject, using SportsInterAction.com as its main source. The favorite was actually a familiar face, Colin Salmon, who appeared as aide to M in three 007 films with Pierce Brosnan.

Ewan McGregor was the favorite until an Internet rumor sparked fervent betting that Colin Salmon, Brosnan’s costar in Die Another Day, would be cast as the first black Bond.

As a result, Salmon’s odds were put at 13-4. Other high ranking favorites included Ewan McGregor at 4-1, Christian Bale at 9-2, Colin Ferrell at 9-1, Orlando Bloom at 11-1 and Jude Law at 11-1.

Of course, the part went to Daniel Craig, whose casting for Casino Royale was announced in October of that year.

We’ll say this again: Bookies don’t know what’s going to happen. Their odds are based on the activity of bettors, who don’t know know what’s going to happen.

Having said that, there is an amusing passage in the BBC story near the end.

The betting for the next Bond comes amidst a reported power struggle between the Broccoli family – who produce the films – and studio MGM.

“Who takes on the role could well depend on who comes out top in the power struggle behind the scenes,” said the Ladbrokes spokesman.

“If the Broccoli family win we could well see an unknown actor, while if the money men have their way we could see a top star in the role.”

Still, when it comes to the wisdom of bookies, caveat emptor.

A weird week (at least on the Internet) for SPECTRE

This was an unusual week for SPECTRE. The marketing effort for the 24th James Bond film zigged one way but the Internet zagged in an entirely different direction.

The week began with a video blog showing behind-the-scenes footage during SPECTRE’s shoot in Mexico City back in March.

That’s understandable. The Mexico City sequence opens the film (the filmmakers have disclosed this, so it’s not a spoiler). It’s going to be expansive, so the short video sought to give the viewer an idea of that without giving any plot details away.

The Internet, however, refused to be gently guided in that direction. Bookmaker William Hill in the U.K. decided to alter its odds for the actor succeeds Daniel Craig as Bond. Craig said back in 2012 he was contracted for two films. That would mean he’s on board through Bond 25. That would indicate, there won’t be an actual vacancy until 2018 or so.

Nevertheless, the bookmaker moved actor Damian Lewis to 3-1, generating stories in familiar trade publications such as THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER and VARIETY as well as outlets such as THE TELEGRAPH and ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY. Even The Atlantic, which normally analyzes weighty and serious matters, DID A STORY that used the William Hill news as a news peg to also examine whether the next 007 should be black.

Referring to SPECTRE star Daniel Craig and his blonde hair and Lewis and his red hair, The Atlantic story concluded, “Ten years removed from his casting, the fuss about Craig seems ridiculous, and it’s hard to imagine a public outcry if Lewis really did sign on to the franchise. “But the same can’t be said for what could happen if the producers defied change-averse Brits to make a truly bold casting decision.”

In any case, Indiewire took the whole thing a step further. It asked readers to PARTICIPATE IN A SURVEY about who should be Craig’s successor. (Indiewire calls it a poll, but it’s not. An actual poll employs statistical methods in selecting its sample of respondents. This is just click on whoever you want to be 007.) Anyway, there were turn out the vote efforts by fans of potential future Bonds.

It’s probably safe to assume the folks at Eon Productions and their studio partners at Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer and Sony Pictures are not real happy about this turn of events.

MGM and Sony are ponying up $300 million or more and, no doubt, would rather have the public concentrate on the upcoming SPECTRE due out in November than the next re-casting of Bond, whenever that occurs. In the 21st Century, the Internet sometimes has a way of not cooperating with movie marketing.